Shelter-in-Place, Why?

Shelter-in-Place, Why?

California has received a lot of notoriety in this Covid crisis. However it’s important to note the percentages of deaths in that state. The mortality rate in CA is 0.00006925 (May13, 2020). That means 99.999931% of the population will not die yet are forced to remain sheltered.  Deaths are more prevalent among the elderly, people over 65, having co-morbidity issues. No one is recommending that individuals avail themselves to this virus, but this virus itself is not a killer. That at least is the case in California. But it also applies to most other parts of the country. From the facts that have been offered reopening the economy, even sports arenas, would save more lives that those lost from Covid.  Focus on areas with no reported cases, or minimal cases, and restore as before.

On May 12 and 13th there were congressional hearings with Dr. Fauci reviewing the pandemic caused by this virus first appearing in China. During that hearing senator Tim Scott from South Carolina made some valuable information available. It reflected again on those that have died from the coronavirus as a group. The young, school and college age children, have had zero Covid deaths. That begs the question why should schools be closed. The vast majority of deaths are people that are retired, over 75, and are not part of the workforce anyway. There was a category of people over 60, as well, say 60 to 75, and many in that group are employable. So taking them out of the work environment can affect an economy, but at a much lower rate than taking everyone out of the work environment. 

What is really being said is there is no reason for not going back to work. Precautions can be taken. 

If someone tests positive for the virus they can be asked to stay at home for a period of time. But even those that test positive, in the workforce, are not likely to die. It’s the same scenario as people with the flu, stay home, do not infect your colleagues.  Sick days are for the sick, not for everyone simultaneously. So we can proceed to live our lives like we used to knowing it’s the elderly that we are most concerned about and particularly the elderly that have other medical problems.  The tradeoff is lives versus livelihoods.  We can prioritize to protect the most vulnerable. 

Alex Berenson, once a reporter for the New York Times, has been a critic of public policy regarding the Covid pandemic.  As to the lockdown strategy he refers to it as a ‘colossal mistake.’ I agree. The statistics simply do not support the extent to which the ‘fear’ of this virus was promoted to close the world economy.  It was vibrant.  This virus is virulent, yet not that dangerous.  Statistically it is not fatal.  Yes, it can be to some.  The elderly and most vulnerable appear to be mostly non-working persons.  The economy relied on them more as consumers than producers.  One of his statements, “The economic devastation and the societal devastation of the lockdowns appear to be greater than even the worst projections were a month ago (April).”  Proper analysis and consideration, by politicians particularly, did not adequately judge potential outcomes on society and economy. The medical and science experts created a worst case scenario and advised our leadership accordingly.  Trump took steps to close our borders, but a total economic shutdown was never warranted.  There was little balance between pessimism and optimism.  The spread of the virus also was not ubiquitous.  There were many areas that still have had no experience with the virus, except for the scare tactics and the actions of the elected politicians reacting to the overly hyped death toll that would be experienced, and which has not been experienced.  

In addition needed hospital services were denied.  This occurred to the detriment of the balance sheets of hospitals that were called upon to accept only Covid patients, preparing for the most awful pandemic in world history, only to be surprised as in most areas anticipation failed to achieve results. Also, as was the case in New York, Pennsylvania, and I believe New Jersey, Governors viewed nursing homes as placement centers for Covid victims.  They were wrong in doing so.  States regulate nursing homes to care for the frail elderly, not for sick elderly.  Neither staffed nor equipped to handle illnesses, nursing homes may be the most frequent user of 911 to transfer the frail to hospitals when they contract an illness.  Health Departments in every State know this, as they are the ones as overseers.  Either they did not advise their governors accordingly, or the Governors ignored or did not seek their advice.  The Governors are responsible!  In my view what was done was criminal.  They have no excuse. There have been 22,000 Covid deaths in NY. Over 5,000 were in nursing homes, that is 25%.  That is tragic. The report for Virginia is that 60% of Covid deaths in that State were in nursing homes. 

From the Los Angeles Times on May 11, articles titled, “The economic devastation wrought by the pandemic could ultimately kill more people than the virus itself,” indicated,  “The economic devastation the pandemic wreaks on the ultra-poor could ultimately kill more people than the virus itself.  The United Nations predicts that a global recession (caused by Covid fear-mongering) will reverse a three-decade trend in rising living standards and plunge as many as 420 million people into extreme poverty, defined as earning less than $2 a day.”  Those that advocate reopening as many aspects of the economy as possible only makes sense, common sense. Destroying the hands that feed our families is worse that contacting the virus, suffering for a week or so. Protect the elderly and vulnerable. They are not the vast majority of the work force.

A proper ‘fear’ for all Americans is the actual and potential imposition of restrictions on the mobility of citizens.  Said another way, our freedom. The political monitor patrols will be able to follow your every move, with whom you  associate, where you eat and drink, your travels, and so on. This will be done in the name of health care. This is a travesty upon our freedom.  It is a perfect excuse for politicians. This is a device for citizen control. This virus is being used as a cover for introducing socialist communist programs that only liberals can love. Their “nanny-state” is a cover-up for an autocracy with only permitted freedoms. A possible outcome could be, if you sneeze in the wrong place or without proper sneeze protection reflexes, you can be fined or incarcerated.  There will be a video captured by drone or cameras placed everywhere possible.  And as free citizens your tax-payor dollars will be used to provide the surveillance.  

Beware also, the terms “vaccine” and “cure” will be introduced as factors that restrictions, impositions of our freedom and independence, will and can continue in light of the current virus or new ones, “until” one or the other occurs.  But if there is never a “vaccine” or “cure,” then be prepared for NannyGate.  Without “vaccine” or “cure” the government rules, rule. This is power to the governing, not the governed.

Why should States or Counties without a single case of the coronavirus require businesses to close, be shuttered, and require residents stay at home? Discerning individuals need to properly analyze the risk/reward of opening businesses especially in areas that are Covid free. The risk in this pandemic is political overreaction.  People will suffer more greatly from not having a job or the ability to properly feed one’s family or plan for the future, than from the virus. 

Politicians, in too many cases, have lost their sense of reality. Is it insensitive to consider the cost to the economy of one Covid death?  Today that figure is $25 to $30 million.  Add to that the further cost to recover from the economic shut-down on a per death basis.  Jobs permanently lost.  Businesses permanently closed.  Hospitals closed.   Are those dying from Covid, the vulnerable elderly primarily, from an insurance perspective, that of an actuary, worth that much to an entire economy?  How much is a death worth, knowing now the nature of those most exposed?  

From the data, the numbers, and considering the political fear tactics, this virus crisis does not justify the extent to which our Country or any Country has been closed.  Area by area, yes, but but not on such a global scale.  

Maybe the politicians are reacting just as China wanted them too.  

So the question posed, Why have we had to shelter-in-place as we did?

Be smart, be independent, consider all facts, care for your family, be objective, and be safe.  Let’s get American back to work.  Start consuming. 

Blessings