Where is the Balance - Covid

 Consider a fulcrum or a see-saw.  The center post is the balance point.  On either end we have Lives (or Covid deaths), and the other we have livelihoods (or Jobs lost).  How is this equation solved?  Is the focus to be on a proper balance?  If so, who determines, how is it determined, and what are the determinants? In the past I have estimated, based on jobs lost in our economy (America), as much as $30,000,000 in lost personal wages (on a per annum basis) per Covid death (as reported).  It is quite fair to suggest the Covid death statistics are over-counted.  In addition many of the deaths were due to co-morbidity issues.  Now that is not to say those with other heath problems could not have been properly treated and continued to live, except for the invasive virus that compromised an already compromised physical system.  But given some general acceptance to those factors noted, the total Covid death number would be lower, and consequently the lost payroll (which relates to tax revenues, purchasing power, consumer confidence, travel, family unity and individual health, such as depression) would be higher.  That makes one side of the balance bar, make it the left side, ‘One Covid Death’ and the opposing side, the right side, $30,000,000 to $50,000,000. 

We have had discussions about what happens in the future.  Recently Warren Buffett liquidated his massive portfolio of all airline stocks.  He explained.  The problem for the airlines is not due to their CEO’s.  They are all good managers.  Circumstances beyond their control, as an economy was closed.  Travel, foreign and domestic came to a halt.  Foreign is about ‘0’ today (May 5, 2020), and domestic is at 5-10%. TSA reported processing about 128,000 passengers recently, an uptick from the lows, but compared to the same date the prior year, you would be looking at 2,400,000 flyers.   The residual impact, however, relates to airline traffic recovery.  Business represents 45% of domestic travel, and 55% of income.  That may never fully recover as businesses have discovered Zoom, and other tele-conferencing services, that will reduce business travel in the future.  That leaves confidence to travel.  Domestically it will increase, but for foreign travel that increase will be quite gradual, much more slowly than domestic. For travelers auto traffic in the USA may increase at a greater rate than airline travel. Then consider not only the impact on airlines, the corresponding reduction in aircraft, maintenance, services to travelers, and baggage needs. Buffett does not believe airlines will ever see a return to what was normal in December of 2019.

Add to the right side of the balance bar future business revenue, and not just from airlines.  How will governments handle the decrease in their revenues, at the State and Federal levels.  New York State and Florida have about equal populations (19.5 million versus 21.5 million), yet the budget for NY is double that of Florida. State spending for New York is about double that of Florida ($165 Billion versus $84 Billion).  Can that be explained?  How will NY cope, and why can’t they reduce staff, departments, and more? Many States, it seems mostly Democratic run States, are asking the Federal Government to make up their losses from the Covid crisis.  There are those who go further seeking money to cover their past sins and over-extended pension liabilities. NY expects a $6 Billion shortfall in this year’s budget, and wants US to pay for it.  Add the exposed mis-management of States to the right side of the balance bar.  

Much of what is being suggested is the Economy, the world Economy, was shut down too fast, too soon.  Yes, and I agree with those who would now tell me, but, yes, but, there would be more Covid deaths without sheltering-in-place (I refer to it as aging-in place). There are more as a percentage of the whole in Sweden, see, as they did not close their economy as a whole.  That experiment remains to be fully played out. If we increase the deaths 10-fold (650,000), that means the left side remains at One Covid Death, but the Right side changes to $3,000,000 to $5,000,000.  Is that a better balance?  Now to the Right we have not added anything for lost Future costs, to include increased size of government, taxes, rules and regulations, and less freedoms. 

Help me see this all more clearly.  Add justifications for actions taken, a more Orweillian (1984) and Huxley (Brave New World) view of the New World, and consider financial and physical (human) impacts from steps taken.

Your thoughts?